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The Betting Economy Runs On Misplaced Faith

By Joseph Barry
Advertising for Kalshi promoting their service for betting in the NYC Mayoral election in Midtown Manhattan in New York on Wednesday, October 29, 2025. The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2025 with early voting now in progress. (ÂPhoto by Richard B. Levine)
Jun 5, 2026
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The prediction market is booming. In April alone, it was estimated that Polymarket and Kalshi recorded nearly $24 billion in trades.

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Advertising for Kalshi promoting their service for betting in the NYC Mayoral election in Midtown Manhattan in New York on Wednesday, October 29, 2025. The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2025 with early voting now in progress. (ÂPhoto by Richard B. Levine)